Using combination of technical analysis and global macro fundamental analysis to find best stock picks and ETF trading ideas for my own trading for living
December 24th, 2008 Richard
I have noticed gaps on several Ultra short ETFs yesterday. I also received questions regarding this issue. I was looking for some explanation and I found this:
“ProFunds Group … has announced fourth quarter income dividend distribution declarations for its ProShares ETFs. The firm expects dividend distributions for 52 of its 76 ETFs. Capital gain distributions for 35 of the firm’s ETFs were announced earlier today……”
That means that some capital gains and dividend were extracted from price of these short ETF stocks.
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock market comment | 2 Comments »
December 4th, 2008 Richard
I have noticed during my stock chart analysis that 10Y T-Note interest rate is moving in downtrend channel in last 10 years.
Based on simple principles of support and resistance I think that we can expect that this interest rate will drop near 2%. Support level could be between 2.0 to 2.25%.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | Comments Off
October 25th, 2008 Richard
As you can notice, I do not post too much now. The main reason is that I did not trade too much with individual stocks in last two weeks.
I have not found too much good trade setups in individual stocks during last two weeks. I made few ETF trades with Ultra short Gold ETF and Ultra short Oil ETF. Right now I am shorting bonds using Ultra short Bond ETF (PST). There is good setup right now in this bonds ETF.
But I feel that some consolidation is in progress on US stock markets . I already noticed several stocks acting relatively strongly in last week, so I closely monitor them for possible long trade setups.
Posted in ETF trade setup, Stock market comment, Stock pick | 1 Comment »
October 2nd, 2008 Richard
I hope you are short gold and Oil as I am (I noticed it several times in last weeks).
I was not able to find a lot of good stock trade opportunities during last week. But fear of last weeks allowed me to enter short trades in Oil and gold on very interesting levels. I did it using Ultra short Gold and Ultra short Oil ETF stocks.
As global world economy is slowing rapidly I expect commodity trades are out of interest. Prices of gold and oil will go down.
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock market comment | Comments Off
August 7th, 2008 Richard
I am not very active this week. FED meeting was one reason. Low volumes during last 2 weeks is another. I do no see this up move as very bullish. I still see it as possible short selling opportunity.
Especially European indexes are weak link. Check DAX, FTSE, IBEX etc… They will drop much more then US markets I think.
But as US markets are my main place for trading I preferably watch them. And I found relative weakness in Industrials sector. So I have prepared list of potential short swing trade candidates from this sector. It is also possile to trade it via Short ETF for Industrial sector.
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock market comment | Comments Off
July 12th, 2008 Richard
It was wild action on stock markets this week.
But I have to say that I feel that US markets want to pause in declines. I have noticed several signs during this week which point me to this idea.
I noticed that SP500 and Nasdaq are not moving down too much. They are already in area of support levels. Only Dow Jones Industrial as weakest one is still dropping. But area around 10800 – 11000 should work as support area and stop this drop of DJIA.
The strongest is Nasdaq (based on relative strength measurement of my analysis) . You can notice that volume associated with bullish candlesticks is higher then with bearish. I feel it as signal that shorts are being covered.
And therefore I am preparing small longs in technology area in strongest sectors and strongest stocks.
Posted in Stock market comment | Comments Off
July 9th, 2008 Richard
As I mentioned in my newsletter, supports finally hold markets and allowed them to move up.
My long entries in biotechnology stocks mentioned in my newsletter moved well together with announced drop in Energy sector (I am still long DUG and short some Energy names).
Biotechnology sector is only one that is worth watching for long trades. It is strongest one in current market situation. See chart below.
Final notice: we are still in downtrend so I plan to wait a day or two for new short trade setups in weakest sectors.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Stock market comment | Comments Off
May 15th, 2008 Richard
Well, I did not expect todays strong rally after yesterdays negative performance. Markets are mixed . What to trade ? Definitely Nasdaq100 is long biased – big technology stocks are leading market.
On the other side there are several laggards. Stocks like CME or DNA look weak and are possible stock pick for short into rally near important resistances.
Posted in Stock chart analysis, Stock market comment, Stock pick | Comments Off
April 15th, 2008 Richard
I received this question from my reader :
Hello Richard, I received your news letter today in which you mentioned a bearish flag on a chart
for a gold ETF.I am new to self directed investments and im not sure if you give opinions on investments or just stock trading strategy advice.But I would like to ask you for your opinion on gold and silver investments for the short and long term.Thanks for your time and your news letter.
Here is my reply :
“..from my point of view gold and silver were in hand of hard speculators in last months. There was little bubble created in price as both went up too much too quickly I think. And so I expect further correction of price of gold and silver. But this is short term view for next couple weeks maybe months.
I cannot say anything regarding long term gold investment as it has a lot to do with US dollar weakness and strength. Right now I see much more possibility for further decline in gold price then for new rise. But it is current situation and it can change. Enclosed is weekly chart of Gold futures.
….”
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock chart analysis, Stock market comment | Comments Off
April 10th, 2008 Richard
I have noticed last week already drop in stock market volume. You can see it on chart below that market volume decreased significantly in last weeks.
It signalize that big investors are not willing to go to the market. They are sitting on cash and waiting. This article on Bloomberg confirms this view.
Posted in Stock market comment | Comments Off
