September 4th, 2009 richk
I have noticed that during last month everything were strongly corellated . Currencies vs Stock markets vs commodities. All moves the same direction. Main driver was only Risk On or Risk Off mentality.
It was also in sectors on stock markets as every sector moved up without significant pullbacks or presentation of relative strength or weakness.
But finally I have noticed first signs of divergences. You probably seen strong rally in gold and silver but without significant decline in USD
Also Oil started to correct.
And finally some parts of stock markets looks differently then others.
I would like to point you to Rusell 2000 index (small caps). It starts to show relative weakness to SP500 or Nasdaq indexes. I will watch it more for possible short trade with IWM ETF. Traders could also use inverse ETF with ticker TWM.
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock market comment | 1 Comment »
August 23rd, 2009 richk
There is very strong divergence in price development between crude and other commodity- natural gas. Oil (but also several other commodities) is in bullish uptrend, natural gas price is in strong decline.
What is wrong ? Price of oil or price of natural gas ? Maybe we can see good tradable global macro theme developing righ in front of us.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Global macro, Stock market comment | 1 Comment »
July 26th, 2009 richk
I was not trading too much last week as this rally left me practically without open trades on stock market. I closed 2 longs and still I have opened one short (KR), but I am still in process of waiting for stock market pullback.
10 days of strong rally without pullback did not allowed me to enter trade with good risk reward ratio.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
June 29th, 2009 richk
I have watched gold chart and found interesting that on long term chart one can find both types of trading idea:
a) bullish: represented by inverse head and shoulders pattern
b) bearish: represented by double (tripple) top chart pattern
What will prevail? Right now it is looking technically more bullish but based on my global macro themes I am not very bullish on gold fundamentally long term.
Posted in Global macro, Stock chart analysis, Stock market comment | 3 Comments »
June 19th, 2009 richk
Yo can see declining volume since beginning of May on US stock markets. There are not real buyers on US stock markets since then.
I think that all move from beginning of May (near 930 high) is in risk. If we will not see some upmove with strong volume, then stock market can easily drop below 900 level – 800 to 820 as target.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | 2 Comments »
June 11th, 2009 richk
Broad market index SP500 is trading in very tight range in last few days. And also volume totally collapsed.
SPX is pushed down by resistance level near 940 – 950 level . But there is also uptrend line supporting price in rise. Also 200SMA and 20MA are near current price level. I expect that we will see stronger move soon, up or down. Till breakout or breakdown I do not want to make a lot of aggressive trades.
My swing trading strategy has now prepared stock trade setup for relative strong or relative weak stocks only.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
June 5th, 2009 richk
10Year Bond yield is now in resistance area between 3.90 – 4.20. It can rest there. But final resistance can be seen near 4.80 where is upper line of longterm downtrend channel.
Bonds can be traded by Bond ETF or Short ETF for Bonds
Posted in Stock chart analysis, Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
May 1st, 2009 richk
I was quite reluctant to buy long positions during last week rally. I would like to see more significant correction first.
Yesterday stock markets presented bearish signal. After very strong open with gap up they reversed their course and finished day on their lows. There was also strong volume too.
Below is example of Nasdaq chart. Nasdaq is leader of current rally and bearish reversal candlestick with strong volume signalize that we could see some correction. Correction which is much needed, I think.
What is your opinion ?
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | 3 Comments »
March 21st, 2009 richk
If you look at weekly or monthly chart of gold you can spot that price is now near important resistance level.
A lot of people expect continuation of uptrend into new highs. But one can also see this chart pattern as possible bearish reversal double top pattern.
If you trade commodity ETF for gold , you can trade it long with GLD or short with Short ETF for gold like DZZ or DGZ
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
March 1st, 2009 richk
Health care stocks and sector was one of strongest part of US stock markets.
But last week completely changed picture and this sector lost every sign of strength.
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
