August 7th, 2008 richk
I am not very active this week. FED meeting was one reason. Low volumes during last 2 weeks is another. I do no see this up move as very bullish. I still see it as possible short selling opportunity.
Especially European indexes are weak link. Check DAX, FTSE, IBEX etc… They will drop much more then US markets I think.
But as US markets are my main place for trading I preferably watch them. And I found relative weakness in Industrials sector. So I have prepared list of potential short swing trade candidates from this sector. It is also possile to trade it via Short ETF for Industrial sector.
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July 12th, 2008 richk
It was wild action on stock markets this week.
But I have to say that I feel that US markets want to pause in declines. I have noticed several signs during this week which point me to this idea.
I noticed that SP500 and Nasdaq are not moving down too much. They are already in area of support levels. Only Dow Jones Industrial as weakest one is still dropping. But area around 10800 - 11000 should work as support area and stop this drop of DJIA.
The strongest is Nasdaq (based on relative strength measurement of my analysis) . You can notice that volume associated with bullish candlesticks is higher then with bearish. I feel it as signal that shorts are being covered.
And therefore I am preparing small longs in technology area in strongest sectors and strongest stocks.
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July 9th, 2008 richk
As I mentioned in my newsletter, supports finally hold markets and allowed them to move up.
My long entries in biotechnology stocks mentioned in my newsletter moved well together with announced drop in Energy sector (I am still long DUG and short some Energy names).
Biotechnology sector is only one that is worth watching for long trades. It is strongest one in current market situation. See chart below.
Final notice: we are still in downtrend so I plan to wait a day or two for new short trade setups in weakest sectors.
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May 15th, 2008 richk
Well, I did not expect todays strong rally after yesterdays negative performance. Markets are mixed . What to trade ? Definitely Nasdaq100 is long biased - big technology stocks are leading market.
On the other side there are several laggards. Stocks like CME or DNA look weak and are possible stock pick for short into rally near important resistances.
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April 15th, 2008 richk
I received this question from my reader :
Hello Richard, I received your news letter today in which you mentioned a bearish flag on a chart
for a gold ETF.I am new to self directed investments and im not sure if you give opinions on investments or just stock trading strategy advice.But I would like to ask you for your opinion on gold and silver investments for the short and long term.Thanks for your time and your news letter.
Here is my reply :
“..from my point of view gold and silver were in hand of hard speculators in last months. There was little bubble created in price as both went up too much too quickly I think. And so I expect further correction of price of gold and silver. But this is short term view for next couple weeks maybe months.
I cannot say anything regarding long term gold investment as it has a lot to do with US dollar weakness and strength. Right now I see much more possibility for further decline in gold price then for new rise. But it is current situation and it can change. Enclosed is weekly chart of Gold futures.
….”
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April 10th, 2008 richk
I have noticed last week already drop in stock market volume. You can see it on chart below that market volume decreased significantly in last weeks.
It signalize that big investors are not willing to go to the market. They are sitting on cash and waiting. This article on Bloomberg confirms this view.
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April 4th, 2008 richk
I noticed on charts of Nasdaq nad SP500 that volume declined during this week. It means that stocks are moving up on lower volume then was during strong sell off. It means for me that buyers are not coming strongly into market. It was much more short covering rally. It is also another signal for me to be more bearish then bullish.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | 1 Comment »
April 2nd, 2008 richk
I am still biased more to short side (bearish) but current market situation with such strong rallies are not good for such approach. Market is still in range of correction after January’s sell off. I still monitor several very weak stocks . I am now going into sit and watch mode and will monitor situation for some days too see what will develop on markets.
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March 2nd, 2008 richk
I put a lot of importance on stock volume analysis. When price move is accompanied with good volume it is strong signal for me.
Current situation on US stock markets is good example. You can see like during correction period (approx. last 3 weeks) volume came down. Institutional investors (big banks, asset managers, fund etc) were not participating on these moves. They were waiting.
And therefore I did not believe rise of markets. And finally strong downtrend move happened on Friday. And volume picked up again. It is strong signal. Big investors are not in buying mode now. They are going to sell or short more. And they expect markets to drop much more.
It is totally what I feel . Therefore I made huge profits on short trades in last 3 weeks. Selective shorts worked very well. GOOG, AMZN, APOL are some of examples. And I want to short more, will wait for any bounce for good stock swing trade short setup.
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February 27th, 2008 richk
Especially Nasdaq-100 index is moving sideways in range. Still not able to move over 20EMA. This is not good sign for bulls. technologies are not bought by large investors.
And it means that they are still good for short trades. I traded GOOG 3 times during last 2 weeks and made nice profits on this stock. I plan to short this stock again in every rally to 500 (previous support, now resistance).
Also stocks like AMZN, EBAY, EQIX are good opportunities for possible short swing trades
Posted in Stock market comment, Stock pick | 1 Comment »
