Using combination of technical analysis and global macro fundamental analysis to find best stock picks and ETF trading ideas for my own trading for living
December 29th, 2007 richk
I would like to notify you that I decided to write stock and ETF trading newsletter.
It has to cover my thought and simple stock trading ideas for stocks and ETFs much deeper then short messages published in my blog.
I will be very pleased if you will find info published in this my free stock trading newsletter useful. I will be also pleased if you will send me your comments about content, what you want to read and also questions you want to have answered.
I plan to publish it bi-weekly, every first and third Monday in a month.
So, if you want, you can subscribe to this newsletter on this web page with newsletter description (you can click to FREE newsletter menu item on the left of this blog page)
Also feel free to send me any idea you can have regarding this my newsletter.
Posted in ETF analysis, General, Stock chart analysis, Stock market chart analysis | 1 Comment »
December 19th, 2007 richk
I went through stock market index chart in my stock analytics software and I have to say that markets moved into negative territory again.
But I feel that markets cannot decide if they will resume trend up or will start new down trend move. They are in ranges abound or near important 200 SMA.
Trading in ranges is difficult for me as I do more breakout pullback stock trades.There is only one advice for range trading: short in resistance areas, long in support areas. This is what most professional traders do in trading ranges.
Right now I am more conservative and will follow advice of old traders – preserve your cash . The most important for every trader is to have cash – if you have not enough cash , you cannot trade. That is why stop loss should be used.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
December 7th, 2007 richk
I see really small trading volume during this week. Where are big boys ? I think everybody is already waiting for next week , for FED decision about interest rates. Most of traders expect another cut, issue is only how big. I think that it will be 0.25% .
Last 2 days rally activated most of my stops in short trades. So I am now more in cash then in positions. For new longs I prefer to see some buyable bounce.
Right now I noticed significant weakness in RIMM and EBAY stocks. So they could be good candidates for short stock swing trade.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment, Stock pick | No Comments »
December 1st, 2007 richk
Stock market indexes formed bearish candlesticks accompanied with high volume on important resistances. All of these signals are bearish indications for further market development.
Small cap Rusell 2000 index and S&P500 index are weakest or their charts are most bearish. Good opportunities for short swing ETF trade . You can use inverse short or ultrashort ETF shares for these trades. I plan to use them too.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis | No Comments »
November 27th, 2007 richk
Yesterday volume was small. I expected it will increase after holiday week.
Also there are no big buyers on markets right now. So it looks like markets will go down. Nasdaq broke 200MA, Dow and SP500 are also on their track down.
I expect Dow is now on the track to the 12000 points support level and Rusell (Small cap) to 700 points. I would like to short these two indexes in case they will provide some bounce. I will use Short style ETF like DOG, RWM or DXD, TWM
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
November 8th, 2007 richk
Finally stock markets broke minor supports from last two weeks. And started second leg of downtrend move. As I expected in my last posts, they are now in direction to important support areas. I described them in this post few weeks ago.
SP500 also breaking down important 200MA. This is bearish signal for stock markets. Dow is close to 200MA too. Only Nasdaq is well positioned above 50EMA and 200MA.
If you are looking for new long trades, watch stock with really big relative strength. List of stocks in Nasdaq-100 index is good way how to find some good candidates.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
October 20th, 2007 richk
I noticed several times that volume during rally days is much smaller then average volume. And also during last week the volume accompanied with selling was much more higher. You can see this on charts below.
I made stock market index chart analysis today. Nasdaq already touched its support area. SP500 and Dow Jones have some space for further decline. So I expect that selling in SP500 and Dow will continue till these indexes will come into these support areas.
If there will be some bounce on Monday , it could be good opportunity to enter some short trade in SPY or DIA (Index ETF) or enter longs in “short” ETFs (like DOG or SH) or “Ultra short” ETF (DXD or SDS).
Volume and support areas you can see on charts below.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment | No Comments »
October 16th, 2007 richk
I have noticed bearish candlesticks on charts of leading Nasdaq stock market sectors. You can find there bearish negative candles with long body (GOOG chart) or candlesticks with long upper shadow with small body in lower part (Biotechnology ETF with symbol XBI or IBB).
There is also higher volume accompanied with yesterdays selling on Dow Jones Industrial index, S&P500 and also Nasdaq stock market index charts.
Also Semiconductors went into negative territory under 200MA. They are weak and formed bearish head and shoulders pattern. This 200MA together with gap area between 36.60 and 37 created strong area of resistance.
So I plan to short Semiconductors ETF (symbol SMH) if it will break down under 35.90 (Fridays low) with possible target near 34 area.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Stock market chart analysis | No Comments »
October 12th, 2007 richk
It already came yesterday. High volume profit taking. I noticed that big investors (funds, asset managers) have not been buying during last rally . I think it because high volume was missing during last days. I noticed it a few days ago already so I was not so aggressive in opening new long trades.
Big boys started to unload their holdings and sell into strength of last rally. High volume during yesterdays afternoon selloff is sign of that.
I must say that I am happy that this selling came. This rally lasts too long. Prices must go down a bit to allow me enter new low risk long trades. I monitor some stocks and will probably prepare some long setup during weekend. I expect that some selling will come today too. Major stock market indexes are too far from important moving averages.
There are some stocks with relative strength. They acted well yesterday and I expect they will act good today too. JDSU, VRSN, CSCO, BRCM, JAVA, MYGN, ETR are stocks I will monitor closely for possible new long trades. I made nice profits on MYGN, BRCM, ETR trades during last weeks and re-entry into these stock can offer new profit potential. As long as they will stay in their uptrends.
Current correction could move Nasdaq to support area near 2700 point. See chart below. There we will see if this support will hold and allow uptrend to resume. Or if something like deeper market correction is in front of us.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis, Stock pick | No Comments »
October 6th, 2007 richk
I analyzed stock market index charts. And I noticed that there is divergence in volume for SPX (SP500) Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. It could be sign of overbought conditions and possible correction ahead. Only Nasdaq is going up with relative strong volume.
Posted in Stock market chart analysis | No Comments »
