June 11th, 2009 richk
Broad market index SP500 is trading in very tight range in last few days. And also volume totally collapsed.
SPX is pushed down by resistance level near 940 – 950 level . But there is also uptrend line supporting price in rise. Also 200SMA and 20MA are near current price level. I expect that we will see stronger move soon, up or down. Till breakout or breakdown I do not want to make a lot of aggressive trades.
My swing trading strategy has now prepared stock trade setup for relative strong or relative weak stocks only.
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June 5th, 2009 richk
10Year Bond yield is now in resistance area between 3.90 – 4.20. It can rest there. But final resistance can be seen near 4.80 where is upper line of longterm downtrend channel.
Bonds can be traded by Bond ETF or Short ETF for Bonds
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May 1st, 2009 richk
I was quite reluctant to buy long positions during last week rally. I would like to see more significant correction first.
Yesterday stock markets presented bearish signal. After very strong open with gap up they reversed their course and finished day on their lows. There was also strong volume too.
Below is example of Nasdaq chart. Nasdaq is leader of current rally and bearish reversal candlestick with strong volume signalize that we could see some correction. Correction which is much needed, I think.
What is your opinion ?
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February 21st, 2009 richk
Based on requests from my readers and clients I am now preparing report with investment ideas I want to monitor and trade during Y2009.
These investment themes will be based on global macro strategies I have prepared. They can be traded on stock markets, FOREX or commodities markets. I trade them in my own fund. Most of them are good for position trades.
This report will be paid and will be available for limited number of readers only. I will send more details about it soon by email but if you want to reserve your copy in advance, you can also contact me.
Posted in General, simple stock trading web, Stock market chart analysis, Stock market comment, Stock pick | 2 Comments »
December 4th, 2008 richk
I have noticed during my stock chart analysis that 10Y T-Note interest rate is moving in downtrend channel in last 10 years.
Based on simple principles of support and resistance I think that we can expect that this interest rate will drop near 2%. Support level could be between 2.0 to 2.25%.
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June 18th, 2008 richk
If you are not using multiple time frames for your stock chart analysis then you can leave important edge for your trading business on the table.
I use multi time frame chart setup for my stock analysis and also stock trading software. I recommend it to you too.
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April 4th, 2008 richk
I noticed on charts of Nasdaq nad SP500 that volume declined during this week. It means that stocks are moving up on lower volume then was during strong sell off. It means for me that buyers are not coming strongly into market. It was much more short covering rally. It is also another signal for me to be more bearish then bullish.
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March 2nd, 2008 richk
I put a lot of importance on stock volume analysis. When price move is accompanied with good volume it is strong signal for me.
Current situation on US stock markets is good example. You can see like during correction period (approx. last 3 weeks) volume came down. Institutional investors (big banks, asset managers, fund etc) were not participating on these moves. They were waiting.
And therefore I did not believe rise of markets. And finally strong downtrend move happened on Friday. And volume picked up again. It is strong signal. Big investors are not in buying mode now. They are going to sell or short more. And they expect markets to drop much more.
It is totally what I feel . Therefore I made huge profits on short trades in last 3 weeks. Selective shorts worked very well. GOOG, AMZN, APOL are some of examples. And I want to short more, will wait for any bounce for good stock swing trade short setup.
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February 24th, 2008 richk
and buyers are not coming. Market moves are driven by short term traders. Quick reversals can happen. And stock market volume is low.
Time to be conservative in both ways. I slightly prefer to be more short as markets are still weak.
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December 30th, 2007 richk
I did technical analysis of stock market yesterday. I went through charts of all major indexes I monitor. This is my opinion about them.
Most bullish is Nasdaq 100 index.There are higher highs and higher lows on weekly chart. What is interesting on this chart that resistance near 2200 points could be last level before strong move up. If you look to history you can find that last and strongest move of 2000 bubble started right after breakout of 2200 level. So if Nasdaq 100 index will be able to manage this breakout , we can see similar “bubble” uptrend like in 2000.
Dow Jones and SP500 are in the middle of their ranges of last 6 month move. They look more bearish then bullish. Dow Jones industrial has head and shoulders chart pattern on its weekly chart.
Most bearish from my point of view is Rusell 2000 (small cap index). It has broken major support level (now resistance) in 780 -800 area. I expect it will go down to next 680-700 support level (I have to prepare some ETF short swing trade setup)
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