Simple stock trading blog » Global macro http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com Using combination of technical analysis and global macro fundamental analysis to find best stock picks and ETF trading ideas for my own hedge fund Mon, 26 Jul 2010 09:15:35 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 DBC Commodity ETF in range but bearish http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/07/26/dbc-commodity-etf-in-range-but-bearish/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/07/26/dbc-commodity-etf-in-range-but-bearish/#comments Mon, 26 Jul 2010 09:15:35 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=720 DBC, Commodity ETF, is now in defined range with bearish bias prevailing. I like most commodity ETF stocks for possible short trade. Only one – agricultural commodity ETF – is bullish for me. Technical analysis now agree with my Global Macro opinion about commodities.

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/07/26/dbc-commodity-etf-in-range-but-bearish/feed/ 0 New issue of Global Macro newsletter available http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/07/21/new-issue-of-global-macro-newsletter-available-2/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/07/21/new-issue-of-global-macro-newsletter-available-2/#comments Wed, 21 Jul 2010 08:08:22 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=717 We have published new version of Global macro newsletter with this content:

  1. GERMAN PROPERTY MARKET
  2. IS SURGING EUR A SIGN OF STRENGTH OR WEAKNESS?
  3. CREATING EMERGING MARKETS BOND PORTFOLIO
  4. MORTGAGE RATES IN THE US HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWEST ON RECORD
  5. ROBUST TURKISH GROWTH

Newsletter is available for members only but if you are interested in it you can check it with 3 months free trial available.  Subscribe here

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/07/21/new-issue-of-global-macro-newsletter-available-2/feed/ 0 New issue of Global Macro newsletter available http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/06/27/new-issue-of-global-macro-newsletter-available/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/06/27/new-issue-of-global-macro-newsletter-available/#comments Sun, 27 Jun 2010 11:55:33 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=700 We have published new version of Global macro newsletter with this content:

  1. CAR SALES IN US ON THE MEND
  2. EXTERNAL DEBT OF PIGS COUNTRIES
  3. WHAT WILL EARNINGS SEASON BRING US NEXT MONTH?
  4. PROXY FOR WEAKNESS IN CHINESE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
  5. ROBUSTNESS OF US SYSTEM

Newsletter is available for members only but if you are interested in it you can check it with 3 months free trial available.  Subscribe here

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/06/27/new-issue-of-global-macro-newsletter-available/feed/ 0 KO bullish breakout http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/03/24/ko-bullish-breakout/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/03/24/ko-bullish-breakout/#comments Wed, 24 Mar 2010 12:04:08 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=622 I have entered trade in KO yesterday (trade setup details were described in ETF & Stock Trading ideas newsletter). It has broken long downtrend and is now poised for further gains.

This stock fits to my technical strategies but it has also value based on my global macro approach.

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/03/24/ko-bullish-breakout/feed/ 0 DBA Agriculture commodities ETF is in range http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/03/08/dba-agriculture-commodities-etf-is-in-range/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/03/08/dba-agriculture-commodities-etf-is-in-range/#comments Mon, 08 Mar 2010 15:28:46 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=609 DBA is presenting very nice trading range. One can buy on the support and sell on resistance. Right now I think that price can go down to support level of trading range.

I have read a lot about good harvest of agriculture commodities so fundamentals also confirm down move.

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/03/08/dba-agriculture-commodities-etf-is-in-range/feed/ 0 I like to short Japanese yen http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/02/18/i-like-to-short-japanese-yen/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/02/18/i-like-to-short-japanese-yen/#comments Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:28:02 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=589 I have been looking for establishing new short in Japanese Yen currency. It is based on Global macro story I follow in my fund. And it is also confirmed by nice chart pattern. You can see it on chart of FXY (Japanese yen Currency ETF).

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2010/02/18/i-like-to-short-japanese-yen/feed/ 0 USD index changing trend http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/12/14/usd-index-changing-trend/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/12/14/usd-index-changing-trend/#comments Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:29:22 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=548 I have noticed that USD Index has broken downtrendline and finished last week stronger. I think we can see start of new USD bullish trend move . I am waiting for this new trend and plan to trade it in my fund accordingly.

091213_USD_Index_bullish_trend_change

This index can be traded directly with ETF stock “UUP”.

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/12/14/usd-index-changing-trend/feed/ 1 Chinese Yuan ETF available http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/11/17/chinese-yuan-etf-available/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/11/17/chinese-yuan-etf-available/#comments Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:10:34 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=531 Do you think that Chinese currency will rise against USD ? Then you can use this currency ETF for trade with this idea.

I personally opened small position in my fund and will add in the future.

091115_CYB_currency_ETF

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/11/17/chinese-yuan-etf-available/feed/ 0 EUR – still bullish but fundamentally very expensive already http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/10/22/eur-still-bullish-but-fundamentally-very-expensive-already/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/10/22/eur-still-bullish-but-fundamentally-very-expensive-already/#comments Thu, 22 Oct 2009 12:26:37 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=515 EUR is in strong bull trend. Also USD is sold off hard against most major currencies. Investors does not like USD , right ?

I do not know. I am not going to fight this uptrend. But based on my global macro fundamental analysis I do not trade this EUR bull trend. I am not USD bear and EUR bull. I think that there is shortage of USD developing in the world as US is not pushing USD to the world (bigger US export then imports, lower trade deficits etc…). I mentioned it already in my newsletters.

But EUR is going to be great problem for whole EUR zone and especially for export oriented Germany. We can already see deterioration of trade balance of EU zone. It is only matter of time when markets will spot it and find that everybody is long of EUR but EUR is much worse currency then USD.

I prepare to open EUR shorts in my fund.

091022_EUR_still_bullish_chart

]]> http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/10/22/eur-still-bullish-but-fundamentally-very-expensive-already/feed/ 0 UNG – very bearish commodity chart http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/08/23/ung-very-bearish-commodity-chart/ http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/2009/08/23/ung-very-bearish-commodity-chart/#comments Sun, 23 Aug 2009 18:34:36 +0000 richk http://www.simple-stock-trading-ideas.com/?p=470 There is very strong divergence in price development between crude and other commodity- natural gas. Oil (but also several other commodities) is in bullish uptrend, natural gas price is in strong decline.

What is wrong ? Price of oil or price of natural gas ? Maybe we can see good tradable global macro theme developing righ in front of us.

090823_UNG_bearish_chart

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