DBC, Commodity ETF, is now in defined range with bearish bias prevailing. I like most commodity ETF stocks for possible short trade. Only one – agricultural commodity ETF – is bullish for me. Technical analysis now agree with my Global Macro opinion about commodities.
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I have entered trade in KO yesterday (trade setup details were described in ETF & Stock Trading ideas newsletter). It has broken long downtrend and is now poised for further gains.
This stock fits to my technical strategies but it has also value based on my global macro approach.
DBA is presenting very nice trading range. One can buy on the support and sell on resistance. Right now I think that price can go down to support level of trading range.
I have read a lot about good harvest of agriculture commodities so fundamentals also confirm down move.
I have been looking for establishing new short in Japanese Yen currency. It is based on Global macro story I follow in my fund. And it is also confirmed by nice chart pattern. You can see it on chart of FXY (Japanese yen Currency ETF).
I have noticed that USD Index has broken downtrendline and finished last week stronger. I think we can see start of new USD bullish trend move . I am waiting for this new trend and plan to trade it in my fund accordingly.
This index can be traded directly with ETF stock “UUP”.
Do you think that Chinese currency will rise against USD ? Then you can use this currency ETF for trade with this idea.
I personally opened small position in my fund and will add in the future.
EUR is in strong bull trend. Also USD is sold off hard against most major currencies. Investors does not like USD , right ?
I do not know. I am not going to fight this uptrend. But based on my global macro fundamental analysis I do not trade this EUR bull trend. I am not USD bear and EUR bull. I think that there is shortage of USD developing in the world as US is not pushing USD to the world (bigger US export then imports, lower trade deficits etc…). I mentioned it already in my newsletters.
But EUR is going to be great problem for whole EUR zone and especially for export oriented Germany. We can already see deterioration of trade balance of EU zone. It is only matter of time when markets will spot it and find that everybody is long of EUR but EUR is much worse currency then USD.
I prepare to open EUR shorts in my fund.
There is very strong divergence in price development between crude and other commodity- natural gas. Oil (but also several other commodities) is in bullish uptrend, natural gas price is in strong decline.
What is wrong ? Price of oil or price of natural gas ? Maybe we can see good tradable global macro theme developing righ in front of us.
