Simple stock trading blog » Forex

I like to short Japanese yen

richk — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:28:02 +0000

I have been looking for establishing new short in Japanese Yen currency. It is based on Global macro story I follow in my fund. And it is also confirmed by nice chart pattern. You can see it on chart of FXY (Japanese yen Currency ETF).

EUR – still bullish but fundamentally very expensive already

richk — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 12:26:37 +0000

EUR is in strong bull trend. Also USD is sold off hard against most major currencies. Investors does not like USD , right ?

I do not know. I am not going to fight this uptrend. But based on my global macro fundamental analysis I do not trade this EUR bull trend. I am not USD bear and EUR bull. I think that there is shortage of USD developing in the world as US is not pushing USD to the world (bigger US export then imports, lower trade deficits etc…). I mentioned it already in my newsletters.

But EUR is going to be great problem for whole EUR zone and especially for export oriented Germany. We can already see deterioration of trade balance of EU zone. It is only matter of time when markets will spot it and find that everybody is long of EUR but EUR is much worse currency then USD.

I prepare to open EUR shorts in my fund.

British pound found its resistance

richk — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 10:44:13 +0000

GBPUSD (british pound FX cross to USD) looks like it found its resistance area. Situation looks for possible further declines in GBP and that every rally to 1.66 area and above could be used as good short selling opportunity.

This idea can be traded by FX (as I do in my fund) or by Currency ETF FXB.