May 15th, 2011 richk
Japanese economy has a lot of problems which should arrange much weaker JPY in long term.
But it is not happening yet. JPY is strengthening for a while. Earthquake and disaster in Fukushima indicated possible start of weakening process. But it was not confirmed.
And current technical situation points to further strength in JPY against USD. Break under 80 could move JPY much lower with first target near 74-75 level.
If you plan to trade it do not forget to use stop loss!
Posted in Forex, Global macro | No Comments »
February 14th, 2011 richk
I have noticed triple top bearish chart pattern on the chart of AUDUSD exchange rate. It can lead to selling of AUD . This idea could be traded directly on Forex market or using currency ETF FXA.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Forex | No Comments »
February 18th, 2010 richk
I have been looking for establishing new short in Japanese Yen currency. It is based on Global macro story I follow in my fund. And it is also confirmed by nice chart pattern. You can see it on chart of FXY (Japanese yen Currency ETF).
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Forex, Global macro, Stock chart analysis, Stock pick | No Comments »
October 22nd, 2009 richk
EUR is in strong bull trend. Also USD is sold off hard against most major currencies. Investors does not like USD , right ?
I do not know. I am not going to fight this uptrend. But based on my global macro fundamental analysis I do not trade this EUR bull trend. I am not USD bear and EUR bull. I think that there is shortage of USD developing in the world as US is not pushing USD to the world (bigger US export then imports, lower trade deficits etc…). I mentioned it already in my newsletters.
But EUR is going to be great problem for whole EUR zone and especially for export oriented Germany. We can already see deterioration of trade balance of EU zone. It is only matter of time when markets will spot it and find that everybody is long of EUR but EUR is much worse currency then USD.
I prepare to open EUR shorts in my fund.
Posted in Forex, Global macro | No Comments »
September 19th, 2009 richk
GBPUSD (british pound FX cross to USD) looks like it found its resistance area. Situation looks for possible further declines in GBP and that every rally to 1.66 area and above could be used as good short selling opportunity.
This idea can be traded by FX (as I do in my fund) or by Currency ETF FXB.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Forex | No Comments »
