October 18th, 2009 richk
During my regular analysis I found that there has been already divergence in action of some sectors and their ETFs.
There are 3 groups in sector ETF list in my stock analysis software: Strong (bullish), Neutral, Weak (bearish)
Actually I have in bullish list these ETFs: XLP, RTH, ITA
And in Bearish list these ETFs: BDH, WMH, IYR, XHB
Here is example of WMH index bearish weekly chart.
I am going to prepare some ETF trades with these ETFs in my ETF strategy for my fund.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Stock chart analysis, Stock pick | No Comments »
October 8th, 2009 richk
Broadband ETF BDH started to be weak. I missed good shorting point yesterday and now I am waiting for another opportunity to initiate short trade
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Stock pick | No Comments »
September 22nd, 2009 richk
Silver did not realized my bearish scenario and instead of this it did bullish breakout. You can see situation on chart below.
Current technical view is bullish and if silver ETF will make pullback to 14.80 – 15.30 area it can be used as good buying area with possible targets near 18.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Stock chart analysis | No Comments »
September 19th, 2009 richk
GBPUSD (british pound FX cross to USD) looks like it found its resistance area. Situation looks for possible further declines in GBP and that every rally to 1.66 area and above could be used as good short selling opportunity.
This idea can be traded by FX (as I do in my fund) or by Currency ETF FXB.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Forex | No Comments »
September 10th, 2009 richk
ETF representing regional banks (KRE) shows very significant weakness to the market and also to another sectors. It could offer very good short selling opportunity in any pullback – like current one.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup | No Comments »
September 4th, 2009 richk
I have noticed that during last month everything were strongly corellated . Currencies vs Stock markets vs commodities. All moves the same direction. Main driver was only Risk On or Risk Off mentality.
It was also in sectors on stock markets as every sector moved up without significant pullbacks or presentation of relative strength or weakness.
But finally I have noticed first signs of divergences. You probably seen strong rally in gold and silver but without significant decline in USD
Also Oil started to correct.
And finally some parts of stock markets looks differently then others.
I would like to point you to Rusell 2000 index (small caps). It starts to show relative weakness to SP500 or Nasdaq indexes. I will watch it more for possible short trade with IWM ETF. Traders could also use inverse ETF with ticker TWM.
Posted in ETF analysis, Stock market comment | 1 Comment »
August 26th, 2009 richk
Silver ETF (SLV) printed bearish stock chart pattern on weekly time frame. As you can see from enclosed chart – head and shoulders chart pattern can be found there.
And this type of pattern is bearish. Current levels could be good place to open aggressive short entry in this commodity ETF stock. I did it already in my fund.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup | 7 Comments »
August 23rd, 2009 richk
There is very strong divergence in price development between crude and other commodity- natural gas. Oil (but also several other commodities) is in bullish uptrend, natural gas price is in strong decline.
What is wrong ? Price of oil or price of natural gas ? Maybe we can see good tradable global macro theme developing righ in front of us.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Global macro, Stock market comment | 1 Comment »
August 12th, 2009 richk
There is sign of possible bearish development in EURUSD exchange rate. As you can see on chart there is very bearish reversal candlestick on weekly chart . This one is developed right in resistance are. It indicates possible further weakness in EURUSD currency pair. I plan to enter short trade in this currency pair soon for my fund.
You can also trade this pair by using currency ETF stock FXE.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Stock chart analysis | 2 Comments »
August 9th, 2009 richk
Strong rally from last weeks pushed all sectors up. It is hard to find something which was not rising in last weeks. There are few stocks, but no whole sectors.
Therefore I only noticed that Energy sector did not rallied so strong as other sectors. I am closely monitor this sector for possible entry for short trade. This sector is lagging and so it is prime candidate for short trade setup for my fund.
Posted in ETF analysis, ETF trade setup, Stock chart analysis | No Comments »
