EUR is in strong bull trend. Also USD is sold off hard against most major currencies. Investors does not like USD , right ?

I do not know. I am not going to fight this uptrend. But based on my global macro fundamental analysis I do not trade this EUR bull trend. I am not USD bear and EUR bull. I think that there is shortage of USD developing in the world as US is not pushing USD to the world (bigger US export then imports, lower trade deficits etc…). I mentioned it already in my newsletters.

But EUR is going to be great problem for whole EUR zone and especially for export oriented Germany. We can already see deterioration of trade balance of EU zone. It is only matter of time when markets will spot it and find that everybody is long of EUR but EUR is much worse currency then USD.

I prepare to open EUR shorts in my fund.

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 22nd, 2009 at 2:26 pm and is filed under Forex, Global macro. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.